资金还未突破 RM100k 之前

Article I found in a forum.. will keep reminding myself..



资金还未突破 RM100k 之前，过于紧盯股市是否有价值？

不少人都很向往可以尽快不必打工，
做个全职股票交易者，靠股票交易支撑生活费，
或者认为可以靠股票交易快速增加资本和储蓄，
从而过于紧盯股市，太过沉迷于所谓的“研究股票”。

每当我遇到这样的股友时，
都发现不少年轻的股友，资本其实并没有多少，
至于交易的回酬，有的亏钱，
有的回酬不错，跟长期投资 15-20% 不相上下，但就弄得自己很忙，
有的回酬明显因为交易而胜过长期投资，比如 30%, 40%, 50%，
而只有少数的神极人马，可以连续多年平均 50-100% 或更高的回报。

我先来假设大家都有机会成为一个回酬平均每年 50% 的纯全职交易者。
如果这个交易者的资金只有 RM100k，那么每年的回报或收入就是 RM50k。
全职交易而没有工作的话，RM50k 年收入也只不过和打一份薪水 RM4k 的工没两样而已。
受薪族安分努力工作，每年要加薪 5-8% 并不是很难的事，
特别是近 5-6年来，相信很多的大马人民都普遍做到。

然而交易者，如果赚 RM50k，花 RM50k，长期还要跑输通膨，
无法像受薪族那样维持生活素质。
如果赚 RM50k，还要保留 RM5-10k 来抵抗通货膨胀，
实际上可以用的收入，就只剩 RM40-45k 左右，平均每月 RM3300 - 3750。

更何况，投资是不是有做就有回报？没有做就完全没有回报的事情呢？
论坛这里也有不少的长期投资者，要按兵不动极少劳碌少烦恼，
依然可以有平均 15% 回报的投资者也不少。
所以全职交易付出的时间，所换回来的经济效益，
以平均 50% 回报为标准，也只是多出额外 35% 而已，
或者1年 RM35k 的收入，平均每月不到 RM3k。

换句话说，今天如果你有 RM100k 的资本，
如果你只是安安分分地长期投资少紧盯股市，
然后去打一份 RM3k+ 的工，即使长期投资的回报只有 10-15%，
经济效益上其实和全职投资赚 50% 回报的交易者没两样。
如果你是中高薪一族，更加胜过这个回报数字。

必须关注的三大课题：
1. 我们有没有 RM100k 或以上的资本呢？
2. 我们有没有数年平均 50% p.a. 回报的交易能力呢？
3. 如果你全心投入工作，收入会不会低过 RM3k 呢？

如果答案都是“不”的话，那么过于紧盯股市或做个全职交易者，多数会是下下策。

也有一些股友可能想到留着一份工，然后上班时忙里偷闲做交易，
同时留住一份不错的薪水，又可以在股市里赚外快（老板杜栏你很久了可能你也没有发现）。
其实，在雪龙区里。。。如果你要赚的只是区区 RM1-3k 的外块，
方法和管道其实也不胜枚举，干嘛要冒股市不必要的风险和精神上的煎熬，
影响工作表现，影响健康，影响和家人的时间与感情关系呢？

紧盯股市，长期睡眠不足和压力，影响健康，
工作时情绪管理和工作效率下降而影响工作，搞不好最终还会因而弄丢了工作，值得吗？
长期沉迷于看市，家里和家庭的事务没有管理好，甚至情绪不好脾气暴躁影响感情，值得吗？

更何况，很多出色的交易者。。。其实并不是交易频密，长期 24/7 紧盯股市的。
有不少的出色交易者，1年里只有 20% 的时间有活跃交易的动作。
大部分的时间，他们的生活还是相当地平衡。

实际上，如果一个刚进入社会工作数年的青年如果肯努力投入工作打拼，
不少的青年都成功达到年收入 RM70k 以上。
比较出色的，甚至可以一年赚数十万，甚至一百万。
有些自己创业，搞些什么网卖，还是接些什么 free lance 工作赚外块的，
即使没有成功赚大钱，外块也蛮可观，不见得会输给股票交易。

糊涂兄在今年论坛年度聚会时也有提到，如果资金是小型的，
即使是再高的 ROI，其实也是等于没有 ROI。

当然，并没有反对大家付出时间学习和磨练交易技术。
很多东西也是需要从小做起，但要懂得平衡，财务上的决策必须拿杆得当。

[PRESBHD] Invest in Education

DISCLAIMER
The articles in this blog do not represent an investment advisory service as no subscription or management fees are charged. The contents of the article are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Any investment decisions carried out based on information, analysis, or commentary provided here is solely your responsibility. You should consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions.

Introducing Prestariang Berhad... 

          What I like about PRESTARIANG is that it has join-effort with Ministry of Education to train teachers on how to integrate ICT in teaching and learning in the class, trained approximately 100k over 3 years 2004 ~ 2007. Established 5 competency centers for students from all higher learning institutions to utilize them as training centers (USM, UUM, University Malaysia Terengganu, University Malaysia Sarawak and Politeknik Ibrahim Sultan. Provider license for Microsoft and Autodesk(dimension design and engineering software for higher learning). We do like company that has government's project ... :-)


Let look at number which will make more sense... (before bonus issue 5 May 2014)

Fundamental Analysis Base on Annual Report 2013 :

• Trailing 12 months Dividend yield of 3.06% ( Almost same with Bank's interest rate) - 
• Trailing 12 months ROE 21.71 efficiency company (Average for 3 years 2011 ~ 2013 before bonus share is 47.8%)
• Average EPS growth rate is 41% huge jump 2010 (7.76 cent) to 2011(16.19 cent)  , if take latest past 2 years to be more accurate the  average 8.84%
• Debt ratio 0.02% =  Total Liabilities / Shareholder Funds ( excellent !! ) 
• Gross Profit Margin = Gross profit / Revenue. For past 2 years-->  47% for 2012 and 56% for 2013
• PE  for 20.48  (for industrial TTM 27.58 and sector 12.96 )

From 2013 Annual Report : 

- Revenue increase 8.5% end of year 2013

• Cost of sales reduce ~10% - Good !
• Margin gross profit 56% - Good !

- Balance sheet :

• Admin Expenses increase ~30% - Need Improvement !
• Reduce in cash & bank balances  ~26% (Trade receivables increase ~18%) from RM 61.3mil to RM45mil - Need Improvement !
• Current borrowing decrease ~5.5% -  Good !
• Long term borrowing decrease ~19%  - Good !
• Net Asset increase ~21%- Good !

- Cash flow :

• Change in trade and other receivables RM 365k to RM 4.33 mil - Need Improvement !

• Change in trade and other payables  RM 4.5mil to -RM3.9mil - Need Improvement !

- Profile for each segmental Revenue :

• ICT Service Training and Certificate increase y-o-y 76% - Good !
• Software License Distribution and management decrease 22% - Need Improvement !
• Overall group profit increase by 8%- Good !

- Future activities:

• Establish Joint Venture with YPJ Holding look into the proposed academy in Johor for Petroleum Academy Malaysia provide skills and up-skilling training in oil and gas to youth, Industry sources say that they need 50k ~70k new skilled workers in O&G sector - meet Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (RAPID) in Pengerang Johor
• UniMY university campus which will be able to handle 3k students annually (only 51 students currently record RM 6.6m loss in FY13, management is taking necessary measure to turn around and targeting break-even for UniMY in 2014) need 500 students for break even. Believe some improvement will be done on this.

• Provide up-skill for English language teachers from 4-5k government school teachers over 2 years

• Recurring revenue from Microsoft and Autodesk(Ministry Education), but focus on expand its homegrown IP like Smart_geen and Pro-ELT (upskilling for English language teachers)

Current Status As of 18 May :

Year-On-Year Revenue Report:

Quarter-by-Quarter Report:

 

Summary : 

• Prestariang showing good fundamental with Dividend yield of ~3% , high ROE and excellent gross profit margin. Profit quarter by quarter on track comparing with previous year quarter, profit attribute to share holder uptrend year on year. 
• Cash flow was reduce from RM61mil to RM45mil, cost of admin expense & receivable increase significantly need to closely monitor.
• For future profit will largely depend on ICT training as we seeing license distribution profit largely reduce in year end 2013. Improvement on the UniMY intake should see significant recovery as management is focusing to get break-even for their money. 
• Joint venture for establishing O&G academy in Johor will be the main focus for Prestariang as O&G sector is outperform with project distribute thru out the year and more skill workers are needed.

Thanks,

Tony Quah

Intrinsic Value

DISCLAIMER
The articles in this blog do not represent an investment advisory service as no subscription or management fees are charged. The contents of the article are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Any investment decisions carried out based on information, analysis, or commentary provided here is solely your responsibility. You should consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions.

Intrinsic Value - defined by my own term it is forecasting future value/earning power of a company. For those long term investors, most of them refer Intrinsic Value calculation (IV) as benchmark for their investment and the right price to go into the market.

Since today is public holiday, I took some times to create my own IV calculation. I have 2 version of IV calculation :

1st version : Base on company performance
2nd version : Base on share price performance (Current)

Why do I have 2 version, the reason is everyone has their own way of calculate IV. Some base on company performance (down to top) and some base on share price movement. However which is the best method, I would say both have their own advantage but the fundamental of the company must be strong before proceed to calculate the IV.


Below shown my 2nd version IV Calculation :

Next posting I hope I able to share some counter profile from my analysis....

Financial Freedom

DISCLAIMER
The articles in this blog do not represent an investment advisory service as no subscription or management fees are charged. The contents of the article are provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Any investment decisions carried out based on information, analysis, or commentary provided here is solely your responsibility. You should consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions.


        Coming to this new year 2014, while it is holiday. I took some of my times to plan for my future as I always had, one of my planning was become financial freedom.


         I wont go as much as detail those consultant might explained the "Financial Freedom" term , for me I just going to describe financial freedom in my own short term. I would called financial freedom is about a person who has already debt free and have enough financial capability to support/sustain his daily financial needs for the rest of his retired life (without worries).  In other word, you can say that you have enough money to support when your retirement. Again financial freedom is not about you have to be become a millionaire, it is about you earn enough money to support your life when you're no longer having active income. It could be you having save Rm 1 million during your working life and save in your account which generate annual interest rate of 3% which make it Rm 30K to support your annual expenses when retired.  The question is ... "Are RM 30K enough for your annual spending when you retired ? "  Divided by 12 months , your monthly spending should not exceed RM 2,500.  Of course, we don't forget about the inflation which will make your money less purchase power.


         Base on my calculation, if a person aged 32 (Table A) able to save RM9,600 per annual (monthly save Rm 800). He/She will have ~Rm 1,657 to spend monthly with interest rate of 5% per annual and with capital of  Rm 398K. Well, image you only have Rm 1,657 to spend in year 2036 is that going to enough? Of course NO.. Inflation will eat your money value slowly by the time you reach your retirement age. For your information, I am compounding the dividend earned. Of course even you have only Rm 1,657 from interest of 5% but you still have capital saving of Rm 398K to spend, just as reminder that you have another 25 years (assume you lives till 80 yrs) to go, if you happen to consume your capital that would mean you will get lesser interest for the coming year.


          Let's say, you start saving at age 24 (Table B) when you start working and save Rm 800 per month with compound interest. When reach age of 55, you will have monthly expenses of Rm 3,000+ for you to support your retirement and capital of Rm 722K.  I know it is difficult because for fresh grad to save monthly Rm 800 which they yet to purchase house, car and not to mention marriage.  My key message today is.. if you start young and realize what you soon will be facing it is more easy for you to handle in future. If you dont, you will face toughness whether you like it or not. You will be there one day....  So be FEARFUL ..be prudent in your spending, start saving for the raining day...




Best Regards,
Tony Quah



Table A: Start Saving at Age 32

Age	Year	Capital	Dividend	Per month	Yearly Contribute
33	2014	9600.00	480.00	40.00	9600
34	2015	19680.00	984.00	82.00	9600
35	2016	30264.00	1513.20	126.10	9600
36	2017	41377.20	2068.86	172.41	9600
37	2018	53046.06	2652.30	221.03	9600
38	2019	65298.36	3264.92	272.08	9600
39	2020	78163.28	3908.16	325.68	9600
40	2021	91671.45	4583.57	381.96	9600
41	2022	105855.02	5292.75	441.06	9600
42	2023	120747.77	6037.39	503.12	9600
43	2024	136385.16	6819.26	568.27	9600
44	2025	152804.41	7640.22	636.69	9600
45	2026	170044.64	8502.23	708.52	9600
46	2027	188146.87	9407.34	783.95	9600
47	2028	207154.21	10357.71	863.14	9600
48	2029	227111.92	11355.60	946.30	9600
49	2030	248067.52	12403.38	1033.61	9600
50	2031	270070.89	13503.54	1125.30	9600
51	2032	293174.44	14658.72	1221.56	9600
52	2033	317433.16	15871.66	1322.64	9600
53	2034	342904.82	17145.24	1428.77	9600
54	2035	369650.06	18482.50	1540.21	9600
55	2036	397732.56	19886.63	1657.22	9600
56	2037	427219.19	21360.96	1780.08	9600
57	2038	458180.15	22909.01	1909.08	9600
58	2039	490689.16	24534.46	2044.54	9600
59	2040	524823.61	26241.18	2186.77	9600
60	2041	560664.79	28033.24	2336.10	9600
61	2042	598298.03	29914.90	2492.91	9600
62	2043	637812.94	31890.65	2657.55	9600
63	2044	679303.58	33965.18	2830.43	9600
64	2045	722868.76	36143.44	3011.95	9600
65	2046	768612.20	38430.61	3202.55	9600

Table B: Start Saving at age 24

Age	Year	Capital	Dividen	Per month	Yearly Contribute
24	2014	9600.00	480.00	40.00	9600
25	2015	19680.00	984.00	82.00	9600
26	2016	30264.00	1513.20	126.10	9600
27	2017	41377.20	2068.86	172.41	9600
28	2018	53046.06	2652.30	221.03	9600
29	2019	65298.36	3264.92	272.08	9600
30	2020	78163.28	3908.16	325.68	9600
31	2021	91671.45	4583.57	381.96	9600
32	2022	105855.02	5292.75	441.06	9600
33	2023	120747.77	6037.39	503.12	9600
34	2024	136385.16	6819.26	568.27	9600
35	2025	152804.41	7640.22	636.69	9600
36	2026	170044.64	8502.23	708.52	9600
37	2027	188146.87	9407.34	783.95	9600
38	2028	207154.21	10357.71	863.14	9600
39	2029	227111.92	11355.60	946.30	9600
40	2030	248067.52	12403.38	1033.61	9600
41	2031	270070.89	13503.54	1125.30	9600
42	2032	293174.44	14658.72	1221.56	9600
43	2033	317433.16	15871.66	1322.64	9600
44	2034	342904.82	17145.24	1428.77	9600
45	2035	369650.06	18482.50	1540.21	9600
46	2036	397732.56	19886.63	1657.22	9600
47	2037	427219.19	21360.96	1780.08	9600
48	2038	458180.15	22909.01	1909.08	9600
49	2039	490689.16	24534.46	2044.54	9600
50	2040	524823.61	26241.18	2186.77	9600
51	2041	560664.79	28033.24	2336.10	9600
52	2042	598298.03	29914.90	2492.91	9600
53	2043	637812.94	31890.65	2657.55	9600
54	2044	679303.58	33965.18	2830.43	9600
55	2045	722868.76	36143.44	3011.95	9600